Are we seeing the emergence of 'dictator' Xi?

The major message from the recent meeting of China's top officials is not about the economy, but about a political power struggle and the strengthened position of Xi Jinping, according to veteran Chinawatcher Willy Lam.

   
 Speaking to the Nikkei Asian Review, Lam said the significance of the Third Plenum of the 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China on Nov. 9-12 is more about the advent of what he called Xi's "dictatorship" and a potential shift in post-Xi succession arrangements.
     The plenum produced a blueprint for crucial economic reforms and gave a strong indication of the direction such reform moves will take over the next decade under Secretary General Xi. This, at least, was the general view among financial market analysts and economists after details of the meeting were revealed Nov. 15. Lam, however, sees things differently. "There were not so many surprises, as many of the economic reforms have already been mentioned before, including the partial loosening of the one-child policy," he said.
     Lam bases his view on the establishment of two new organizations, the National Security Committee (NSC) and the Leading Group on Comprehensively Deepening Reform, both of which Xi seems set to head. Already in control of the party, the state and the military, heading these two groups would give him an even firmer grip on security and economic affairs. "He would be more powerful than Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao," Lam noted. In other words, Xi would effectively become the most powerful Chinese strongman since Deng Xiaoping.
Where's Li?
This leads to another important point in Lam's interpretation: "Premier Li Keqiang has been sidelined."
     As head of the central government, Li is supposed to be in command of the world's second-largest economy. The economic reform policy laid down by the new leadership has been termed "Likonomics." However, if Xi runs the leading group and takes the initiative in economic reforms, Lam thinks it should be interpreted that Li has been marginalized.
     In the official comment released along with the detailed version of the plenum communique, Xi said the drafting process of the communique was led by himself, with Liu Yunshan and Zhang Gaoli as his two deputies. The fact that Li did not take part in this important process is "very strange," Lam noted. "It looks like there was a power struggle between Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, and Li Keqiang lost."
Shifting succession
This apparent power struggle brings Lam to another observation. The succession plan for the so-called "sixth generation" leadership may have changed. The 18th Party Congress last November, which officially anointed Xi the successor to Hu Jintao, also implied a rough agreement regarding the sixth generation, Lam said. The new leaders-in-waiting are Hu Chunhua and Sun Zhengcai, who became Politburo members and now head the key province of Guangdong and municipality of Chongqing, respectively. But Lam thinks the situation has changed.
     According to one of Lam's sources, Xi does not want either man, particularly Hu Chunhua, because he is the candidate from Hu Jintao's power base, the tuanpai, or the Communist Youth League faction. Sun is not from the tuanpai, but "he was mainly recommended by Wen Jiabao," making Sun's position vulnerable too because his guardian, the former premier, is unrelated to Xi's power base. Xi, as he cements his position, seems to "want his own protege to succeed him," Lam said. Although he said it is still too early to predict major alterations in succession arrangements, he considers the outlook for the tuanpai to be bleak.
     Lam said Xi considers the tuanpai a threat because Hu Jintao is still alive and healthy and Li is the current top representative of the tuanpai. Xi's effort in this round of power struggles was therefore targeted against Li. On the other hand, Lam said, Li is not in a position to challenge Xi because Xi is in control of the army and the police. The establishment of the NSC with Xi at its head is an added deterrent in case the tuanpai considers striking back. Also, in Lam's judgment, "The tuanpai doesn't have very powerful politicians." Besides Li, he named only Vice Premier Wang Yang, the predecessor of Hu Chunhua in Guangdong, as a capable enough leader.
     Where is Xi heading with this power grab? His priority is "still the survival of the party and the party's monopoly on power," Lam said. If Likonomics wanes along with Li's influence, Xi will lead China "to a kind of state capitalism, with a party-controlled system and tighter control over ideology."
     Problems may arise on the economic front, where left-leaning policy may hinder reform. Lam said, "The system could muddle through within the reign of Xi Jinping, around 10 years. But the longer-term scenario is hard to anticipate." Xi may have won the power struggle for now, but the task of transforming the economic model into a sustainable one to keep the Chinese people satisfied may not be so easy.